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Research on pedestrian escape route without visibility based on Markov chain model

Xiaoping ZHENG, Lijuan DU, Hongjiang WANG,

《化学科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2010年第4卷第3期页码 283-289 doi: 10.1007/s11705-009-0272-8

摘要： It is a pioneering work to use a Markov chain model to study the pedestrian escape route without visibility. In this paper, based on the Markov chain probability transition matrix, the algorithms with random numbers and the spatial-grid, an escape route in a limited invisible space is obtained. Six pace states (standing, crawling, walking, leaping, jogging, and running) are applied to describe the characteristics of pedestrian behaviors. Besides, eight main direction changes are used to describe the transition characteristic of a pedestrian. At the same time, this paper analyzes the escape route from two views, i.e., pedestrian pace states and directions. The research results show that the Markov chain model is more realistic as a means of studying pedestrian escape routes.

关键词： pioneering direction spatial-grid realistic transition characteristic

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Identification of pollution sources in rivers using a hydrodynamic diffusion wave model and improved Bayesian-Markovchain Monte Carlo algorithm

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第17卷第7期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1685-1

摘要：

● A hydrodynamic-Bayesian inference model was developed for water pollution tracking.

关键词： Identification of pollution sources Water quality restoration Bayesian inference Hydrodynamic model Inverse problem

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Time-series prediction based on global fuzzy measure in social networks

Li-ming YANG,Wei ZHANG,Yun-fang CHEN

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2015年第16卷第10期页码 805-816 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.1500025

摘要： Social network analysis (SNA) is among the hottest topics of current research. Most measurements of SNA methods are certainty oriented, while in reality, the uncertainties in relationships are widely spread to be overridden. In this paper, fuzzy concept is introduced to model the uncertainty, and a similarity metric is used to build a fuzzy relation model among individuals in the social network. The traditional social network is transformed into a fuzzy network by replacing the traditional relations with fuzzy relation and calculating the global fuzzy measure such as network density and centralization. Finally, the trend of fuzzy network evolution is analyzed and predicted with a fuzzy Markov chain. Experimental results demonstrate that the fuzzy network has more superiority than the traditional network in describing the network evolution process.

关键词： Time-series network Fuzzy network Fuzzy Markov chain

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无线局域网上IP语音传输的容量分析

陈立全,胡爱群,周雪莉

《中国工程科学》 2005年第7卷第7期页码 81-85

摘要：

由于无线媒介的易变性，IP语音在无线局域网上传输受到极大的限制。通过对无线局域网媒体接入层机制的分析，考虑了碰撞概率因素，提出了采用马尔可夫链模型来推导在IEEE 80211b/a/g标准下单个接入点同时支持IP语音用户最大容量的方法，计算出针对不同IP语音编码标准如G711，G729和G723.1下的用户容量上限。并在NS2仿真环境下进行结果验证。

关键词：无线局域网 IP语音容量马尔可夫链

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Inverse Gaussian process-based corrosion growth modeling and its application in the reliability analysis for energy pipelines

Hao QIN, Shenwei ZHANG, Wenxing ZHOU

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2013年第7卷第3期页码 276-287 doi: 10.1007/s11709-013-0207-9

摘要： This paper describes an inverse Gaussian process-based model to characterize the growth of metal-loss corrosion defects on energy pipelines. The model parameters are evaluated using the Bayesian methodology by combining the inspection data obtained from multiple inspections with the prior distributions. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques are employed to numerically evaluate the posterior marginal distribution of each individual parameter. The measurement errors associated with the ILI tools are considered in the Bayesian inference. The application of the growth model is illustrated using an example involving real inspection data collected from an in-service pipeline in Alberta, Canada. The results indicate that the model in general can predict the growth of corrosion defects reasonably well. Parametric analyses associated with the growth model as well as reliability assessment of the pipeline based on the growth model are also included in the example. The proposed model can be used to facilitate the development and application of reliability-based pipeline corrosion management.

关键词： pipeline metal-loss corrosion inverse Gaussian process measurement error hierarchical Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

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Capacity analysis for cognitive heterogeneous networks with ideal/non-ideal sensing

Tao HUANG, Ying-lei TENG, Meng-ting LIU, Jiang LIU

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2015年第16卷第1期页码 1-11 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.1400129

摘要： Due to irregular deployment of small base stations (SBSs), the interference in cognitive heterogeneous networks (CHNs) becomes even more complex; in particular, the uncertainty of spectrum mobility aggravates the interference context. In this case, how to analyze system capacity to obtain a closed-form expression becomes a crucial problem. In this paper we employ stochastic methods to formulate the capacity of CHNs and achieve a closed-form expression. By using discrete-time Markov chains (DTMCs), the spectrum mobility with respect to the arrival and departure of macro base station (MBS) users is modeled. Then an integral method is proposed to derive the interference based on stochastic geometry (SG). Also, the effect of sensing accuracy on network capacity is discussed by concerning false-alarm and miss-detection events. Simulation results are illustrated to show that the proposed capacity analysis method for CHNs can approximate the conventional sum methods without rigorous requirement for channel station information (CSI). Therefore, it turns out to be a feasible and efficient way to capture the network capacity in CHNs.

关键词： Cognitive heterogeneous networks Markov chain Stochastic geometry Homogeneous Poisson point process (HPPP)

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三峡库区香溪河流域多变量生态水文风险的不确定性分析 Article

Yurui Fan,Guohe Huang,Yin Zhang,Yongping Li

《工程（英文）》 2018年第4卷第5期页码 617-626 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2018.06.006

摘要：

本研究基于copula函数开发了一种多变量生态水文风险评估框架，用于分析三峡库区香溪河流域极端生态水文事件的发生频率。通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）方法量化边缘分布及copula函数中参数的不确定性，并基于后验概率揭示联合重现期的内在不确定性，同时可进一步得到双变量及多变量风险的概率特征。研究结果显示所得概率模型的预测区间可很好地匹配观测值，尤其对洪水持续时间而言。同时，“AND”联合重现期的不确定性随着单个洪水变量重现期的增加而增加。此外，低设计流量及高服务年限可能导致高洪水风险且伴随大量不确定性。

关键词：洪水风险 copula 多变量水文频率分析概率分布马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗

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基于随机有限集的非齐次马尔可夫链联合概率数据关联滤波器 Research Articles

朱昀1,2,梁爽3,吴晓军1,2,杨红红1,2

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2021年第22卷第8期页码 1114-1126 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.2000209

摘要：提出一种启发式方法，通过随机有限集理论优化数据关联跟踪算法的后验密度。具体而言，提出一种改进的联合概率数据关联滤波方法，即最近邻集合联合概率数据关联方法（NNSJPDA）。为提高边缘化的准确性，利用一种基于Kullback-Leibler散度的最近邻方法，对所有可能的数据关联事件中的目标标签进行转换。此外，进一步考虑目标标签向量的分布。后验密度转换后，可得到目标标签向量的转移矩阵。该转移矩阵随时间变化，使得目标标签向量分布的传播遵循非齐次马尔可夫链。证明了该链本质上是双随机的，并推导了相应定理。通过举例和仿真，验证了所提方法的有效性。本文结果可推广到相同随机有限集框架下的其他数据关联方法。

关键词：目标跟踪；滤波理论；随机有限集理论；贝叶斯方法；马尔可夫链

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火灾事故的灰色-马尔可夫模型预测研究

毛占利,朱毅,杨伯忠,朱磊

《中国工程科学》 2010年第12卷第1期页码 98-101

摘要：

鉴于火灾事故的发生受多种复杂因素的影响，并且具有较大的随机性和波动性的特点，笔者等将灰色模型和马尔可夫模型相结合，建立火灾事故的灰色–马尔可夫模型，利用灰色模型的灰色性和马尔可夫模型的随机性来体现各自的优点，并运用该模型对全国农村火灾事故进行预测。实际应用表明，灰色–马尔可夫模型的预测精度明显高于灰色模型的预测精度，完全能满足预测精度的要求，可以较好地用于火灾事故的预测。

关键词：灰色模型马尔可夫模型火灾事故预测

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马尔可夫网络排队模型在电梯配置中的应用

宗群,程义菊,宋军远

《中国工程科学》 2003年第5卷第10期页码 69-72

摘要：

利用马尔可夫网络排队理论建立了电梯交通模型，在此基础上对各服务站的电梯配置交通进行计算，得到电梯的配置参数。通过与传统的电梯配置方法相比较，显示出明显的优越性，也表明了利用马尔可夫网络排队模型进行电梯配置的有效性和可行性。

关键词：马尔可夫网络排队理论电梯交通模型优化电梯配置

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Sequential degradation-based burn-in test with multiple periodic inspections

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 519-530 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0166-0

摘要： Burn-in has been proven effective in identifying and removing defective products before they are delivered to customers. Most existing burn-in models adopt a one-shot scheme, which may not be sufficient enough for identification. Borrowing the idea from sequential inspections for remaining useful life prediction and accelerated lifetime test, this study proposes a sequential degradation-based burn-in model with multiple periodic inspections. At each inspection epoch, the posterior probability that a product belongs to a normal one is updated with the inspected degradation level. Based on the degradation level and the updated posterior probability, a product can be disposed, put into field use, or kept in the test till the next inspection epoch. We cast the problem into a partially observed Markov decision process to minimize the expected total burn-in cost of a product, and derive some interesting structures of the optimal policy. Then, algorithms are provided to find the joint optimal inspection period and number of inspections in steps. A numerical study is also provided to illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed model.

关键词： burn-in degradation multiple inspections Wiener process partially observed Markov decision process

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Pricing and production strategies in remanufacturing from the perspectives of supply chain: Review and

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 doi: 10.1007/s42524-023-0251-7

摘要： Remanufacturing is widely recognized as beneficial to the environment and a circular economy. However, remanufacturing is more complex than traditional manufacturing due to the effects of government policy, uncertainty of consumer preferences, competition and cooperation among firms, and so on. These factors motivate academics to optimize remanufacturing outcomes, especially for product pricing and production. This study reviews the published literature on pricing and production strategies in remanufacturing from four perspectives of supply chain, namely, government policy, consumer characteristics, relationships among firms, and supply chain structures. Review results can benefit scholars/practitioners in the future by highlighting the challenges and opportunities in remanufacturing strategies.

关键词： remanufacturing reverse and closed-loop supply chain circular economy

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Modeling of the resilient supply chain system from a perspective of production design changes

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 96-106 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0235-z

摘要： Building an effective resilient supply chain system (RSCS) is critical and necessary to reduce the risk of supply chain disruptions in unexpected scenarios such as COVID-19 pandemic and trade wars. To overcome the impact of insufficient raw material supply on the supply chain in mass disruption scenarios, this study proposes a novel RSCS considering product design changes (PDC). An RSCS domain model is first developed from the perspective of PDC based on a general conceptual framework, i.e., function-context-behavior-principle-state-structure (FCBPSS), which can portray complex systems under unpredictable situations. Specifically, the interaction among the structure, state and behavior of the infrastructure system and substance system is captured, and then a quantitative analysis of the change impact process is presented to evaluate the resilience of both the product and supply chain. Next, a case study is conducted to demonstrate the PDC strategy and to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the RSCS domain model. The results show that the restructured RSCS based on the proposed strategy and model can remedy the huge losses caused by the unavailability of raw materials.

关键词： resilient supply chain supply chain disruption domain modeling product design changes

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Digitalization for supply chain resilience and robustness: The roles of collaboration and formal contracts

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 5-19 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0229-x

摘要： Black swan events such as the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak cause substantial supply chain disruption risks to modern companies. In today’s turbulent and complex business environment, supply chain resilience and robustness as two critical capabilities for firms to cope with disruptions have won substantial attention from both the academia and industry. Accordingly, this study intends to explore how digitalization helps build supply chain resilience and robustness. Adopting organizational information processing theory, it proposes the mediating effect of supply chain collaboration and the moderating effect of formal contracts. Using survey data of Chinese manufacturing firms, the study applied structural equation modelling to test the research model. Results show that digitalization has a direct effect on supply chain resilience, and supply chain collaboration can directly facilitate both resilience and robustness. Our study also indicates a complementary mediating effect of supply chain collaboration on the relationship between digitalization and supply chain resilience and an indirect-only mediation effect on the relationship between digitalization and supply chain robustness. Findings reveal the differential roles of digitalization as a technical factor and supply chain collaboration as an organizational factor in managing supply chain disruptions. Paradoxically, formal contracts enhance the relationship between digitalization and supply chain resilience but weaken the relationship between supply chain collaboration and supply chain resilience. The validation of moderating effects determines the boundary conditions of digitalization and supply chain collaboration and provides insights into governing supply chain partners’ behavior. Overall, this study enhances the understanding on how to build a resilient and robust supply chain.

关键词： digitalization supply chain resilience robustness collaboration formal contract

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Disruptive technologies for advancing supply chain resilience

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2023年第10卷第2期页码 360-366 doi: 10.1007/s42524-023-0257-1

摘要： Disruptive technologies provide a new paradigm for supply chain risk management and bring opportunities and challenges for the improvement of supply chain resilience (SCRes). This study summarizes the application cases of some disruptive technologies in the SCRes and analyzes the benefits and damages brought by disruptive technologies to the SCRes. The results show that disruptive technologies can provide the supply chain with flexibility, visibility, agility, and other capabilities at various stages of risk management. Hence, technology advancements greatly increase the level of the SCRes. Although disruptive technologies undermine the construction of SCRes, these damages can be eliminated through technology iteration or other disruptive technologies. Furthermore, disruptive technologies will provide better stability for the SCRes. The study also makes several suggestions for the use of disruptive technologies in the construction of the SCRes.

关键词： supply chain resilience disruptive technology supply chain risk